The Democrat bench in Texas is looking pretty thin these days.
After Colin Allred’s embarrassing loss to Ted Cruz by nearly nine points, Democrats are scrambling to find someone – anyone – who might actually be competitive.
And Jasmine Crockett just set one condition for a Senate run that exposes exactly how weak their position really is.
Crockett Won’t Commit Unless Polls Show She Can Win
The Dallas-area Congresswoman was asked directly about a potential Senate campaign during an appearance on Inside Texas Politics.
Her response revealed everything you need to know about the state of Texas Democrats right now.
"If there is a general (vs. primary) poll that came out that said that I could be competitive that would be something that I would have to consider," Crockett told the show.¹
Translation: She’s not jumping into this race unless she’s guaranteed a path to victory.
That’s not exactly the kind of fighting spirit you expect from someone the media has been touting as a rising Democrat star.
Crockett admitted the obvious – that representing just "1/38th of the state" makes statewide name recognition a major challenge.
"The fact that I represent 1/38th of the state, it is daunting to think that I could be competitive statewide," she acknowledged.²
Texas Democrats Claiming Victory While Running Away
But here’s where Crockett’s comments get really interesting.
She actually thinks Texas Democrats are winning – this coming just two weeks after they fled the state to shut down legislative business.
"I don’t know how many people I’ve come across, whether it’s been in real life or via social media, that have said ‘I didn’t realize Texas was a majority-minority state. I didn’t realize that this is what gerrymandering looked like,’" Crockett said.³
She called it "fantastic" that other states might "match their energy" in similar political stunts.
This is the kind of delusional thinking that has become standard operating procedure for Texas Democrats.
They abandon their posts, flee to Washington, D.C., and then claim they’re the real winners because they got some social media attention.
A Weak Field Gets Weaker
So far, Colin Allred is the only major candidate who has announced for the Democrat Senate primary.
That’s the same Colin Allred who just lost to Ted Cruz by 8.5 percentage points in 2024 – hardly an inspiring choice for Democrats looking to flip the seat.
State Representative James Talarico has been mentioned as a possible candidate after a podcast appearance with Joe Rogan went viral, but he hasn’t made any moves toward actually running.
Now Crockett is setting conditions that basically amount to "I’ll only run if I’m guaranteed to win."
That’s not leadership – that’s political calculation of the worst kind.
Republicans Playing Chess While Democrats Play Checkers
While Democrats are fleeing the state and making excuses, Republicans are methodically working to strengthen their position through redistricting.
Crockett admitted that Republicans are pushing for five new congressional seats in Texas, though she doesn’t think they’ll get all of them.
Her own District 30 didn’t change much under the proposed new map, but her home would end up in District 33 – creating potential complications for her political future.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer.
Republicans are focused on governing and advancing their agenda through legitimate legislative processes.
Democrats are focused on generating social media buzz and finding excuses for why they can’t compete.
The Real State of Texas Politics
Crockett’s conditional approach to a Senate run tells you everything you need to know about where Texas Democrats really stand.
They know they’re in trouble.
Allred’s loss to Cruz wasn’t some fluke – it was a clear indication that even with massive fundraising advantages and media support, Democrats still can’t break through in Texas.
Now their supposed rising star won’t even commit to running unless polling guarantees her success.
That’s not the behavior of a confident political party – that’s the behavior of politicians who know they’re fighting an uphill battle they’re likely to lose.
The fact that Crockett thinks fleeing the state capitol constitutes "winning" just shows how out of touch Texas Democrats have become with actual voters.
Real Texans don’t reward politicians who abandon their jobs when things get tough.
They respect leaders who show up, do the work, and fight for their principles through the proper channels.
Crockett’s poll-dependent Senate strategy might be smart politics, but it’s terrible leadership.
And it’s exactly the kind of conditional commitment that explains why Texas continues to be a reliable red state despite all the media hype about it turning purple.
¹ Michael McCardel, "If this one thing happens, Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett says she’ll consider a run for US Senate," WFAA, August 15, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Ibid.
